March is behind us, and if you've been watching the headlines — or just trying to figure out what's going on with the housing market — I want to give you a straightforward, honest read on what I'm seeing on the ground here in Kingston and the surrounding area.
Kingston's average sale price sitting at $585,993 — down 12.2% year over year — might look alarming at first glance. But here's the context: we're comparing against a period when prices were running very hot. This is a correction to a more sustainable level, not a market in freefall.
Homes are still selling. The average Kingston property is moving in 37 days. That's not a dead market — that's a market where pricing strategy matters. Sellers who come in realistic are transacting. Those who price to 2025 peak levels are sitting.
Napanee is genuinely interesting right now. A 21% jump in average price alongside an 18% jump in sales tells me buyers are recognizing value there and acting on it. Loyalist is showing similar stability with modest price gains.
The rural markets — South Frontenac, Stone Mills, Gananoque — are softer, and smaller transaction volumes mean the numbers swing more dramatically. I wouldn't read too much into one month's data for those areas, but the trend is clear: recreational and rural properties are sitting longer.
Who's Actually Active in This Market?
The most active segment right now is first-time buyers. Younger purchasers — many who have been diligently using the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) to accumulate a tax-advantaged down payment — are finally finding conditions workable. Interest rates have moderated enough that the $400,000–$550,000 price range produces a manageable monthly payment for qualified buyers.
The City of Kingston First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (shared equity program) continues to offer another lever for eligible buyers, helping stretch purchasing power without a dramatically larger mortgage.
There's also significant excitement about the new HST rebate program on new home purchases. This is a real and meaningful incentive for anyone considering a new build — though the implementation details are still being finalized. I'll be sharing updates on this the moment we have clarity, so make sure you're subscribed to stay informed.
The Squeeze in the Middle
Here's the dynamic that doesn't make headlines but is very real: move-up buyers are caught in the middle.
If you already own a home and need to sell before you can buy your next one, you're navigating two uncertainties simultaneously. Your existing home may take longer to sell in the current environment. And you're understandably nervous about committing to a new purchase before you have a firm deal on your current one.
This hesitation is keeping some transactions from happening — and I get it. But there are smart ways to manage this: bridge financing conversations with your lender, conditional offers, and working with an agent who can align both timelines. It's not impossible — it just requires more planning than it did two years ago.
My Honest Take on the Market
There's a lot of noise right now. Economic headlines. Global uncertainty. Interest rate speculation. It can feel like the smart move is to wait and see what happens.
In my experience, waiting for certainty rarely pays off in real estate. By the time the picture is perfectly clear, the opportunity has usually shifted.
If you're a first-time buyer in that $400,000–$550,000 range, this window is worth taking seriously. You have more inventory to choose from, sellers who are willing to negotiate, and programs designed specifically to help you get in. You won't time the absolute bottom — nobody does — but the conditions are more buyer-friendly than they've been in some time.
If you're a seller, the single most important thing you can do is price it right from the start. A well-priced home in Kingston is still moving in just over five weeks. An overpriced home sits, accumulates days on market, and often sells for less than it would have if it had been priced correctly on day one.
If you're somewhere in the middle — thinking about upsizing, downsizing, or making a move but not sure if the timing is right — let's have a real conversation. Not a sales pitch. A conversation about your specific situation and what makes sense for you.
Let's Talk
Questions about your neighbourhood, your home's current value, or what your next move should look like? Reach out — I'm always happy to chat.
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